The Maghreb's political development continues to confound expectations. Few specialists anticipated the start of the Arab Spring. Fewer still thought it would begin in Tunisia, long regarded as one of the region's most stable and prosperous countries. Then, when the demonstrations did break out, most assumed Ben Ali would easily deal with them. Not only had he overcome similar challenges in the past, but he had the support of a large, well-funded and experienced security apparatus. Their shock at his downfall less than a month later was compounded by the simultaneous outbreak of copycat protests elsewhere and Libya's descent into civil war. Many now issued millennial predictions about what would happen next. Unrest would sweep the region. None of its leaders would be spared. Algeria was especially vulnerable.

Yet many of these forecasts have proved to be just as inaccurate as the conservative assumptions that preceded them. While the Arab Spring has undoubtedly wrought many significant changes to the Maghreb, its impact has not been as great as was predicted. In large parts of the region, political life has continued very much as before. Morocco's monarchy has not surrendered any of its core powers let alone become fully constitutional. Mauritania is still governed by the general and coup d’état leader, Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz. And Algeria's 2014 presidential election was won comfortably by the long-serving, aging and seriously ill incumbent, Abdelaziz Bouteflika.

A critical mistake made by many commentators was to overemphasise Tunisia's similarity to its near neighbours. They deduced that, if comparable circumstances to those which had led to Ben Ali's fall could be found throughout the rest of the region, then its other leaders were likely to suffer the same fate. Their suppositions and hypotheses were given additional weight and credibility by the outbreak of equally decisive protests in other parts of the Middle East. Hosni Mubarak's demise was widely seen as both a sign and a prelude, as evidence of the region's hunger and readiness for change, and the continued power of this transnational impulse and movement to enact it. Soon, the whole region would succumb to its transformational energy.

These assumptions were not without foundation. The countries of the Maghreb do share a great deal in common. And their likenesses are accentuated by the region's exceptionalism. Indeed, the Maghreb is defined by separation and similarity.