Introduction

Attempting to forecast future trends, especially in such a rapidly changing and unpredictable field as information technology, is a notoriously inexact science. Nonetheless, there are at least some forecasts that may be usefully made in this area. This chapter examines some of the likely advances that will be made over the next few years, in the areas of data storage, digital preservation, web archiving, and the very shape of the world wide web itself.

Data storage

Web archiving can generate very large volumes of data, which need to be stored and managed. The largest web archives are already approaching or exceeding the petabyte level (1,000 terabytes). In the near future, the larger web archives will be measured in tens or hundreds of petabytes, which will test the limits of current storage technologies. Fortunately, storage capacities show every sign of continuing to rise, accompanied by commensurate reductions in costs, at their current rate for the foreseeable future. Equally, new and more efficient types of storage technology will undoubtedly emerge.

The storage capacities of established technologies, such as hard disk and magnetic tape, are continuing to increase significantly. In 2005, single hard disks with 500 gigabyte capacities were widely available. New technologies such as perpendicular recording, where data is recorded in three-dimensional columns rather than on the two-dimensional disk surface, are expected to increase capacities tenfold over the next few years.

Magnetic tape remains the most common choice for very large data volumes. To illustrate the progression of storage capacities, one of the most widely used tape formats is linear tape open (LTO). The first generation of LTO cartridge, released in 1999, could store 100 gigabytes of uncompressed data. By 2002, the second generation offered 200 gigabyte capacities. The current LTO 3 format boasts 400 gigabytes per tape, with 800 GB expected by 2009 and 3.2 TB beyond that.

Flash memory is also becoming increasingly widespread. Although traditionally confined to portable devices such as music players and removable ‘memory sticks’, the first Flash-based hard drives are now being developed. Although initially aimed at the laptop market, such devices may well become ubiquitous.

Another promising area of research is the application of microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) to data storage. MEMS devices are mechanical components created using micrometre- and nanometre-scale manufacturing technologies.