INTRODUCTION

Developments in the South China Sea (SCS) over the past two decades provide a telling illustration of the evolution of ASEAN–China relations. Its progression since the early 1990s indicates how the relationship has grown more asymmetrical, how realpolitik has marched ahead of the rule of law, and how power equations in the SCS are rapidly changing as a result of China's rise.

China started negotiations with ASEAN on a code of conduct in the SCS in 2000 which culminated in the signing of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC) in November 2002. The DOC is not designed to resolve territorial and jurisdictional disputes in the SCS, and instead prescribes general principles for peaceful settlement of disputes, a set of norms of conduct to maintain the status quo, a platform for maritime cooperation and confidence building, and a stepping-stone towards a future code of conduct.

Embarking on the COC consultations in September 2013, ASEAN and China reached agreement on the Framework of the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea (Framework) in August 2017, and a single draft negotiating text (SDNT) in August 2018. The SDNT provides a basis for further negotiations on specific provisions in the COC. It was agreed that the COC would serve as a rules-based framework to promote confidence-building, and prevent or manage incidents between China and the Southeast Asian claimants. Whether the COC will be a legally binding instrument remains to be seen, and a definite timeline for its conclusion is elusive although Chinese Premier Li Keqiang in November 2018 expressed hope to conclude the document within three years.

While diplomacy moves at a glacial pace, the realities at sea have changed significantly, mainly due to Chinese activities but also by other claimant states, to assert their sovereignty, jurisdiction and control over occupied features and related waters. Starting from the late 2000s, China has “exhibited a greater sense of self-confidence and diplomatic assertiveness in conjunction with its growing power and influence”, departing from the “keeping a low profile” orientation set out by Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping in the late 1970s.