Russian Politics Today Stability and Fragility

Contemporary Russian political dynamics are shaped by exceptionally strong conservative forces that stabilize a prevailing order, but also contain many sources of potential destabilization and change. By the beginning of 2022, Russia’s political order was dominated by President Vladimir Putin and his loyalists within formal institutions, such as United Russia, and informal networks of power led by political and economic elites. There are no political actors who are both powerful and critical of this order, which has been called “high Putinism.” A majority of citizens supported the concentration of power over the previous two decades and contributed to its consolidation through their beliefs and actions. All major channels of communication are firmly controlled by actors committed to disseminating the value, even necessity, of the current order. This highly centralized political order made it possible for Putin to launch a brutal and wholesale war on Ukraine in February 2022. Over the course of the past decade, three key pillars of support for the political current order and the war have been strengthened: (i) the state’s ability to instrumentalize formal institutions to prolong Putin’s and United Russia’s hold on power, (ii) the fact that the state controls virtually all media outlets, and (iii), finally, the government’s ability to generate relative economic prosperity. The war and sanctions are acutely threatening Russia’s economy, and have led to a crackdown on the last remaining independent media outlets.

Whether or not this political constellation will turn out to be stable or fragile depends in large part on whether citizens continue to support Putin. An increasingly assertive foreign policy toward the West had bought high approval ratings for some years. Despite its virtual monopoly over the levers of power, the Putin government has been increasingly afraid of street protest and has gone to great lengths to silence a small but vocal opposition, led by Alexei Navalny. Discontent stemming from failing institutions, pervasive corruption, mounting inequality, and economic hardship has the potential to undermine the balance between stability and fragility in contemporary Russian politics. The outcome of the war in Ukraine will certainly be a watershed moment, although we do not yet know how the war will end. The future of Russian politics will hinge on answers to the question whether Russian citizens will continue to support the Putin government, even with mounting economic and human costs of the war.