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6 - Learning to crawl: how to use seasonal climate forecasts to build adaptive capacity

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  31 August 2009

By
Anthony G. Patt
Edited by
W. Neil Adger ,
Irene Lorenzoni  and
Karen L. O'Brien
W. Neil Adger
Affiliation:
University of East Anglia
Irene Lorenzoni
Affiliation:
University of East Anglia
Karen L. O'Brien
Affiliation:
Universitetet i Oslo
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Summary

Introduction: climate variability and climate change

The Pacific Ocean covers almost half the Earth. Its east–west axis is longest near the Equator, and it is here that the related processes of El Niño and the Southern Oscillation, together known as ENSO, take place. El Niño refers to the periodic warming of the surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific, while the Southern Oscillation refers to the fluctuation in air pressure differential between Darwin, Australia and Tahiti. What determines the periodicity of ENSO is the time it takes for pressure waves to cross from Indonesia to South America, and then bounce back again. Because the ocean is so wide, that process takes several years. Because there is so much water there, and water holds a lot of energy, ENSO phases can alter weather patterns around the world.

Inter-annual climate variability of this sort has always existed. In terms of human experience, it is likely that people have and will continue to experience climate change not as a gradual rise in temperature, but rather as a shift in the frequency and intensity of particular weather events. Climatic risks and climate variability are a substantial drain on the economies of least developed countries, and indeed the effects of climate variability on society are significantly greater than the effects of climate change probably will be, at least for the next 30 years (Hulme et al., 1999).

Type
Chapter
Information
Adapting to Climate Change
Thresholds, Values, Governance
 , pp. 79 - 95
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2009

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