Published online by Cambridge University Press: 05 June 2012
Most researchers find the logic of Bayesian analysis compelling, once a prior has been specified. The stage of the process where most frequentists can be found circling the wagons is when the prior is chosen.
The pure subjectivist engaged in personal research needs only to elicit the prior that reflects his or her subjective prior beliefs. Usually the likelihood is parameterized to facilitate thinking in terms of θ, and so subject matter considerations should suggest plausible values of θ. Elicitation techniques are nicely surveyed by Garthwaite, Kadane, and O'Hagan (2005). These techniques tend to advocate thinking in terms of beliefs concerning future observables and backing out the implied beliefs regarding the hyperparameters of a conjugate prior for the unobserved parameters. Unlike most researchers, economists seem equally adept at thinking in terms of observables or unobservable parameters. Perhaps this is because the econometrician is both the statistician and the substantive field expert.
But why should prior beliefs conform to the conjugate prior form? One reason is that natural conjugate priors have an interpretation in terms of a prior fictitious sample from the same process that gives rise to the likelihood function. This corresponds to organizing prior beliefs by viewing the observable world through the same parametric window used for viewing the data.
Public research, however, inevitably requires prior sensitivity analysis and the elicitation of a family of priors likely to interest a wide range of readers.
To save this book to your Kindle, first ensure no-reply@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.
Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.
Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.
To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.
To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.