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2 - Climate modelling and deep-time climate change

from Section 1 - Introduction

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  16 May 2011

By
R. Caballero  and
P. Lynch
Edited by
Trevor R. Hodkinson ,
Michael B. Jones ,
Stephen Waldren  and
John A. N. Parnell
R. Caballero
Affiliation:
University College Dublin, Ireland
P. Lynch
Affiliation:
University College Dublin, Ireland
Trevor R. Hodkinson
Affiliation:
Trinity College, Dublin
Michael B. Jones
Affiliation:
Trinity College, Dublin
Stephen Waldren
Affiliation:
Trinity College, Dublin
John A. N. Parnell
Affiliation:
Trinity College, Dublin
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Summary

Abstract

Detailed and reliable understanding of past climate change is a key ingredient in unravelling how climate has influenced life on earth and will continue to do so in the future. Palaeoclimatology and climate modelling have both made rapid strides over the past decades, and there has been fruitful two-way interaction between the two fields. The application of climate models to palaeoclimates has proved useful both in interpreting palaeoclimate proxy data and in testing the robustness and generality of climate models. Here, we give an overview of the current state of climate modelling and review recent progress in understanding deep-time climate change, with emphasis on problems where climate models have played a salient role. By suitably adjusting the concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases, climate models can be made to replicate many key climatic transitions in the earth's history. However, important discrepancies remain between modelled climates and proxy reconstructions, particularly on the warm end of the spectrum.

Introduction

Climate science deals with reconstructing and explaining the long-term mean and variability of physical conditions in the earth's envelope. A striking feature emerging from such analysis is the vast range of timescales on which there is significant variability. Part of this variability, including the diurnal and annual cycles, is periodic and predictable, but mostly it is random and unpredictable. We know from direct experience that the weather changes from hour to hour, from day to day, and from year to year.

Type
Chapter
Information
Climate Change, Ecology and Systematics , pp. 44 - 66
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2011

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