Introduction

This chapter refers to three separate aspects of likely future population trends. First, it discusses the prospects for the world as a whole, as they appear today, both treating population as a variable which is independent of specific economic influences and considering it in relation to the prospective supply of the various kinds of resources needed by mankind. Secondly, it shows what expectations have been entertained by demographers in the past – these have varied appreciably from time to time in various countries – and what subsequently happened. This part of the analysis also looks at those parts of the projection which were most successful and which were least successful. Finally, the chapter discusses the details of the latest available assessments, at the time of writing, which have been made for selected countries and areas.

Future world population

The latest published projections made by the Population Division of the UN Organization show that a steady growth in numbers is expected in all parts of the world. Some figures are set out in table 14.1; these relate to the ‘medium variant’ and show that a doubling in the grand total is envisaged between the years 1960 and 2000. The pace of advance differs little between the first and second halves of this period. As between the 8 regions, the pace is lowest in Europe (34 per cent rise in the forty years) and is below the world average also in Russia (54 per cent), North America (67 per cent) and East Asia (81 per cent). In other less-developed regions considerably more than a doubling in population size is envisaged.