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from Part III - The future of the euro area
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 07 October 2011
Athanasios Orphanides in his opening keynote address affirmed that the global crisis revealed fault lines in the governance of the euro area. He concentrated on the new architecture for financial stability in Europe. In my brief contribution I want to focus on fiscal sustainability and budget discipline.
Demographic transition, the global crisis and debt levels
Before focusing on the specific case of the euro area I want to comment very briefly on a crucial evolutionary driver that will shape budgetary trends for the next several decades: demographics. The world is experiencing a fundamental demographic transition: according to the latest demographic projections, made available by the United Nations (2009), world population will stop growing by 2050, when it will have reached about 9 billion people (compared to almost 7 billion in 2010). This will interrupt a trend of pronounced population growth recorded for centuries. This constitutes an epochal transition, with profound impacts on economic, political and social balances.
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