Since Lyndon Johnson's landslide win in 1964, Democratic presidential victories have tended to be both rare and, when they occurred, relatively close. And then came 2008. Barack Obama won big. He won all the nominally “blue” Democratic states. But election night 2008 saw Democratic wins in key battlegrounds and in places long considered safely Republican. Obama won Ohio and Florida, crucial breakthroughs. And he won Colorado, Virginia, Indiana, and North Carolina, Republican states not seriously contested in previous contests. All of this fits a single picture. Eight years of the presidency of George W. Bush and an economic crisis had undermined support for Bush in particular and the Republican brand in general. Obama reaped the benefit. He had promised health care reform to enthusiastic response. He had even promised a tax increase for wealthier Americans. His opponent, John McCain, arguing the evils of redistribution, could get no traction.

One piece of the picture did not fit. If one looked at the polls either leading into the election or following it, “conservative” remained the most common self-description of American voters, evidently including many who had voted for Barack Obama. As had been the case the year before, or four years before, or at almost any time since the early 1960s, for each American who answered a self-identification query “liberal,” almost two gave the opposite, “conservative,” answer.