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16 - Forecast Verification and Post-processing

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  23 March 2023

William W. Hsieh
Affiliation:
University of British Columbia, Vancouver
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Summary

Forecast verification evaluates the quality of the forecasts made by a model, using a variety of forecast scores developed for binary classes, multiple classes, continuous variables and probabilistic forecasts. Skill scores estimate a model’s skill relative to a reference model or benchmark. Problems such as spurious skills and extrapolation with new data are discussed. Model bias in the output predicted by numerical models is alleviated by post-processing methods, while output from numerical models with low spatial resolution is enhanced by downscaling methods, especially in climate change studies.

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Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2023

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