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3 - Did Written Records Give a New Boost to Population Growth?

from Part I - World Population Growth

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  21 June 2024

Rein Taagepera  and
Miroslav Nemčok
Rein Taagepera
Affiliation:
University of California, Irvine
Miroslav Nemčok
Affiliation:
University of Oslo, Norway
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Summary

The world population growth curve shows a kink from 100 BCE to 200 CE. It occurs in all major populated regions: China, Mesopotamia, Mediterranean, and (least of all) in India. Graphing of population doubling times over time shows utter discontinuity. It looks as if Earth’s carrying capacity for humans reached a limit that no increase in technology could overcome, but by 400 CE a unique breakthrough occurred. An exponent value in “T-function” fits to population data before and after the kink shifts in a way that suggests a crucial change in innovation practices. From isolated innovators, humankind shifted to moderate interaction over space and time, due to literacy. A sudden increase around 400 CE in ability to make use of written records is implausible, yet it remains the only conceivable way to explain the kink in world population growth curve.

Keywords

Earth’s carrying capacityliteracypopulation doubling timestamed quasi-hyperbolic functionworld population growth
Type
Chapter
Information
More People, Fewer States
The Past and Future of World Population and Empire Sizes
 , pp. 30 - 44
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2024

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