Book contents
- More People, Fewer States
- More People, Fewer States
- Copyright page
- Contents
- Figures
- Tables
- Preface
- 1 More People and Yet Fewer States
- Part I World Population Growth
- 2 Two Phases in World Population Growth
- 3 Did Written Records Give a New Boost to Population Growth?
- Part II Empire Growth
- Part III Trends and Interactions
- Book Appendix: Chronological Table of Major State Sizes, −3500 to +2025
- References
- Index
2 - Two Phases in World Population Growth
A Novel Visualization and a Logical Model
from Part I - World Population Growth
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 21 June 2024
- More People, Fewer States
- More People, Fewer States
- Copyright page
- Contents
- Figures
- Tables
- Preface
- 1 More People and Yet Fewer States
- Part I World Population Growth
- 2 Two Phases in World Population Growth
- 3 Did Written Records Give a New Boost to Population Growth?
- Part II Empire Growth
- Part III Trends and Interactions
- Book Appendix: Chronological Table of Major State Sizes, −3500 to +2025
- References
- Index
Summary
Over 5000 years, the world population has grown from 10 million to 8 billion. This has taken place in two distinct phases that begin with steeper-than-exponential growth due to the population–technology interaction but later came to a halt, blocked by limits in Earth’s carrying capacity. These two phases stand out when data are graphed in a novel way, with time as well as population on logarithmic scales. Each phase can be fitted using a novel “tamed quasi-hyperbolic” T-function. The ancient phase reached a population of 220 million by year 1, dropping to 190 million by year 400. The present phase slowly picked up speed, reaching its maximal relative (percent) growth rate around 1970 and absolute (in million) around 2010. It projects to a population maximum of 11 billion. The entire process conforms to a “PCT model”: population–carrying capacity–technology interaction. Population growth comes from population itself, as long as population is smaller than capacity. Capacity growth comes from increase in technology, as long as capacity falls short of an ultimate carrying capacity. Technology growth comes from technology itself but also from population.
Keywords
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- Information
- More People, Fewer StatesThe Past and Future of World Population and Empire Sizes, pp. 11 - 29Publisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 2024