The options presented in this book may appear, at first sight, mainly of academic interest because the United Kingdom has already left the European Union and the British government appears bent on a minimal agreement providing for free trade in goods, accompanied by limited provisions on services and a number of sectoral agreements. It is even ready to envisage a “no deal” Brexit, falling back on World Trade Organization (WTO) non-preferential terms, if no agreement is reached in the limited time available. However, as this volume goes to press, it would be a mistake to conclude that a thin deal or “no deal” Brexit is the last word on the future relationship.

The negotiations are taking place in an unusually fluid environment, in which Brexit is a lesser priority for both sides than coping with the overwhelming public health and economic crises. The two chief negotiators and the British prime minister succumbed to the Covid-19 virus for several weeks in spring 2020 and the negotiations have been conducted fitfully at a distance. Any agreement reached in the crisis atmosphere of 2020 is by nature provisional.

This Afterword draws attention to a number of considerations that might lead British and EU leaders to reconsider the nature of the future relationship in the months and years ahead: (1) the extraordinary circumstances in which the negotiations are being held; (2) geopolitical turbulence; (3) changes in the British political scene; and (4) different scenarios for the EU's own future. The Afterword concludes with tentative reflections on other models presented in earlier chapters that may prove instructive in the further evolution of UK–EU relations.

NEGOTIATIONS LIKE NO OTHERS

The negotiations between the EU and the UK to define their future relationship began in March 2020 and were always going to be difficult. The two sides’ objectives diverged widely on key provisions and the time available to overcome these differences was very short. Unless the UK requested and was granted by the end of June 2020 an extension to the transition period that was due to expire on 31 December 2020, the negotiations needed to be concluded, signed and ratified in less than ten months.