Book contents
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- List of contributors
- Preface
- Chapter 1 Predictability of weather and climate: from theory to practice
- Chapter 2 Predictability from a dynamical meteorological perspective
- Chapter 3 Predictability – a problem partly solved
- Chapter 4 The Liouville equation and atmospheric predictability
- Chapter 5 Application of generalised stability theory to deterministic and statistical prediction
- Chapter 6 Ensemble-based atmospheric data assimilation
- Chapter 7 Ensemble forecasting and data assimilation: two problems with the same solution?
- Chapter 8 Approximating optimal state estimation
- Chapter 9 Predictability past, predictability present
- Chapter 10 Predictability of coupled processes
- Chapter 11 Predictability of tropical intraseasonal variability
- Chapter 12 Predictability of seasonal climate variations: a pedagogical review
- Chapter 13 Predictability of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation
- Chapter 14 On the predictability of flow-regime properties on interannual to interdecadal timescales
- Chapter 15 Model error in weather and climate forecasting
- Chapter 16 Observations, assimilation and the improvement of global weather prediction – some results from operational forecasting and ERA-40
- Chapter 17 The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System
- Chapter 18 Limited-area ensemble forecasting: the COSMO-LEPS system
- Chapter 19 Operational seasonal prediction
- Chapter 20 Weather and seasonal climate forecasts using the superensemble approach
- Chapter 21 Predictability and targeted observations
- Chapter 22 The attributes of forecast systems: a general framework for the evaluation and calibration of weather forecasts
- Chapter 23 Predictability from a forecast provider's perspective
- Chapter 24 Ensemble forecasts: can they provide useful early warnings?
- Chapter 25 Predictability and economic value
- Chapter 26 A three-tier overlapping prediction scheme: tools for strategic and tactical decisions in the developing world
- Chapter 27 DEMETER and the application of seasonal forecasts
- Index
- Plate section
- References
Preface
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 03 December 2009
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- List of contributors
- Preface
- Chapter 1 Predictability of weather and climate: from theory to practice
- Chapter 2 Predictability from a dynamical meteorological perspective
- Chapter 3 Predictability – a problem partly solved
- Chapter 4 The Liouville equation and atmospheric predictability
- Chapter 5 Application of generalised stability theory to deterministic and statistical prediction
- Chapter 6 Ensemble-based atmospheric data assimilation
- Chapter 7 Ensemble forecasting and data assimilation: two problems with the same solution?
- Chapter 8 Approximating optimal state estimation
- Chapter 9 Predictability past, predictability present
- Chapter 10 Predictability of coupled processes
- Chapter 11 Predictability of tropical intraseasonal variability
- Chapter 12 Predictability of seasonal climate variations: a pedagogical review
- Chapter 13 Predictability of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation
- Chapter 14 On the predictability of flow-regime properties on interannual to interdecadal timescales
- Chapter 15 Model error in weather and climate forecasting
- Chapter 16 Observations, assimilation and the improvement of global weather prediction – some results from operational forecasting and ERA-40
- Chapter 17 The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System
- Chapter 18 Limited-area ensemble forecasting: the COSMO-LEPS system
- Chapter 19 Operational seasonal prediction
- Chapter 20 Weather and seasonal climate forecasts using the superensemble approach
- Chapter 21 Predictability and targeted observations
- Chapter 22 The attributes of forecast systems: a general framework for the evaluation and calibration of weather forecasts
- Chapter 23 Predictability from a forecast provider's perspective
- Chapter 24 Ensemble forecasts: can they provide useful early warnings?
- Chapter 25 Predictability and economic value
- Chapter 26 A three-tier overlapping prediction scheme: tools for strategic and tactical decisions in the developing world
- Chapter 27 DEMETER and the application of seasonal forecasts
- Index
- Plate section
- References
Summary
In his biography of the great twentieth-century theoretical physicist Richard Feynman, Gleick (1993) writes: ‘He (Feynman) believed in the primacy of doubt, not as a blemish on our ability to know, but as the essence of knowing’. Feynman's philosophy applies as much to weather and climate forecasting as to fundamental physics, as made explicit by Tennekes et al. (1987) when they wrote: ‘no forecast is complete without a forecast of forecast skill’.
The estimation of uncertainty in weather and climate prediction is encapsulated in the word ‘predictability’. If something is said to be predictable, then presumably it can be predicted! However, initial conditions are never perfect and neither are the models used to make these predictions. Hence, the predictability of the forecast is a measure of how these inevitable imperfections leave their imprint on the forecast. By virtue of the non-linearity of the climate, this imprint varies from day to day, just as the weather itself varies; predictability is as much a climatic variable as rainfall, temperature or wind.
Of course, it is one thing to talk about predictability as if it were just another climatic variable; it is another thing to estimate it quantitatively. The predictability of a system is determined by its instabilities and non-linearities, and by the structure of the imperfections. Estimating these instabilities, non-linearities and structures provides a set of tough problems, and real progress requires sophisticated mathematical analysis on both idealised and realistic models.
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- Predictability of Weather and Climate , pp. xiii - xviPublisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 2006