Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-tf8b9 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-23T15:49:11.337Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

9 - The Modeling of Extreme Events

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 April 2024

Paul Embrechts
Affiliation:
Swiss Federal University (ETH), Zürich
Marius Hofert
Affiliation:
The University of Hong Kong
Valérie Chavez-Demoulin
Affiliation:
Université de Lausanne, Switzerland
Get access

Summary

Almost by definition of risk, rare events play a crucial role. We tackle this problem by presenting some basic tools from extreme value theory (EVT). From a statistical point of view, the workhorses are the block maxima method (BMM) and the peaks over threshold method (POTM). Besides giving the mathematical formulation, we exemplify both approaches via simulated examples. Once these tools are in place, we can provide estimators of the relevant risk measures such as high-exceedance probabilities, quantiles and return periods. In a crucial part of the book, we then estimate these quantities for sea-level data at Hoek van Holland near Rotterdam. We obtain estimates, including confidence intervals, for a necessary dike height withstanding a required 1 in 10 000 years storm event. Further applications concern financial data and data from the L’Aquila earthquake. For the latter, we present dynamic models for earthquake aftershocks. After an excursion to the world of records in athletics, we present the signature application of EVT through the story of the sinking of the MV Derbyshire. We show how an application of EVT techniques has saved many lives at sea.

Type
Chapter
Information
Risk Revealed
Cautionary Tales, Understanding and Communication
, pp. 219 - 291
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2024

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Save book to Kindle

To save this book to your Kindle, first ensure coreplatform@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

Available formats
×

Save book to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

Available formats
×