THE ACHIEVEMENT OF REGULAR GROWTH

We turn now to analyse narrowly that decisive interval in the history of a society when growth becomes its normal condition. We consider how it comes about that the slow-moving changes of the preconditions period, when forces of modernization contend against the habits and institutions, the values and vested interests of the traditional society, make a decisive break-through; and compound interest gets built into the society's structure.

As suggested in chapter 3, take-offs have occurred in two quite different types of societies; and, therefore, the process of establishing preconditions for take-off has varied. In the first and most general case the achievement of preconditions for take-off required major changes in political and social structure and even in effective social values. In the second case take-off was delayed not by political, social and cultural obstacles but by the high (and even expanding) levels of welfare that could be achieved by exploiting land and natural resources. In this second case take-off was initiated by a more narrowly economic process as, for example, in the northern United States, Australia and, perhaps, Sweden. And, you will recall, as one would expect in the essentially biological field of economic growth, history offers mixed as well as pure cases.

The beginning of take-off can usually be traced to a particular sharp stimulus. The stimulus may take the form of a political revolution which affects directly the balance of social power and effective values, the character of economic institutions, the distribution of income, the pattern of investment outlays and the proportion of potential innovations actually applied.