Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-l7hp2 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-27T18:33:42.491Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

2 - Validating Bank Holding Companies’ Value-at-Risk Models for Market Risk

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  02 March 2023

David Lynch
Affiliation:
Federal Reserve Board of Governors
Iftekhar Hasan
Affiliation:
Fordham University Graduate Schools of Business
Akhtar Siddique
Affiliation:
Office of the Comptroller of the Currency
Get access

Summary

This chapter focuses on the three types of testing that banks are supposed to conduct for their VaR models. These are conceptual soundness, outcomes analysis and benchmarking. This chapter reviews how these three aspects of validation can be applied to VaR models of banks’ trading activities. In the case of backtesting and benchmarking it demonstrates how banks’ VaR models fare under some the backtesting and benchmarking tests.

Type
Chapter
Information
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2023

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Andersen, T. G., Bollerslev, T., Christoffersen, P. F. and Diebold, F. X. (2006). Volatility and correlation forecasting. In Elliott, G., Granger, C. W. J., and Timmerman, A. (Eds.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Vol. 1, Amsterdam: North-Holland, 777878.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barone-Adesi, G., Giannopoulos, K. and Vosper, L. (1999). VaR without correlations for portfolios of derivative securities. Journal of Future Markets, 19(5), 583602.3.0.CO;2-S>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Berkowitz, J., Christoffersen, P. and Pelletier, D. (2011). Evaluating Value-at-Risk models with desk-level data. Management Science, 57(2), 22132227.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Berkowitz, J. and O’Brien, J. (2002). How accurate are Value-at-Risk models at commercial banks? Journal of Finance, 57, 10931111.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
BIS (2019). Minimum Capital Requirements for Market Risk. Basel Committee on Banking Supervision.Google Scholar
Chan, N. H., Deng, S.-J., Peng, L. and Xia, Z. (2007). Interval estimation of Value-at-Risk based on GARCH models with heavy-tailed innovations. Journal of Econometrics, 137(2), 556576.Google Scholar
Christoffersen, P. F. (1998). Evaluating interval forecasts. International Economic Review, 39, 841862.Google Scholar
Christoffersen, P. F. (2012). Elements of Financial Risk Management (2nd ed.). Amsterdam: Academic Press.Google Scholar
Christoffersen, P. F. and Goncalves, S. (2005). Estimation risk in financial risk management. Journal of Risk, 7, 128.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clements, M. P. and Taylor, N. (2003). Evaluating interval forecasts of high frequency financial data. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 18, 445456.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dowd, K. (2006). Using order statistics to estimate confidence intervals for probabilistic risk measures. Journal of Derivatives, 14(2), 7781.Google Scholar
Du, Z. and Escanciano, J. C. (2016). Backtesting expected shortfall: Accounting for tail risk. Management Science, 63(4), 940958.Google Scholar
Dufour, J.-M. (2006). Monte Carlo tests with nuisance parameters: A general approach to finite-sample inference and nonstandard asymptotics. Journal of Econometrics, 133(2), 443477.Google Scholar
Engle, R. F. and Manganelli, S. (2004). CAViaR: Conditional autoregressive value at risk by regression quantiles. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 22(4), 367381.Google Scholar
Escanciano, J. C. and Pei, P. (2012). Pitfalls in backtesting historical simulation VaR models. Journal of Banking and Finance, 36, 22332244.Google Scholar
Frésard, L., Pérignon, C. and Wilhelmsson, A. (2011). The pernicious effects of contaminated data in risk management. Journal of Banking and Finance, 35(10), 25692583.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gaglianone, W. P., Lima, L. R., Linton, O. and Smith, D. R. (2011). Evaluating Value-at-Risk models via quantile regression. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 29(1), 150160.Google Scholar
Garman, M. (1997). Taking VaR to pieces. Risk, 10(10), 70–71.Google Scholar
Gong, Y., Li, Z. and Peng, L. (2010). Empirical likelihood intervals for conditional Value-at-Risk in ARCH-GARCH models. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 31(2), 6575.Google Scholar
Gordy, M. B. and McNeil, A. J. (2020). Spectral backtests of forecast distributions with application to risk management. Journal of Banking and Finance, 116, 113.Google Scholar
Gourieroux, C., Laurent, J. P. and Scaillet, O. (2000). Sensitivity analysis of Values at Risk. Journal of Empirical Finance, 7(3), 225245.Google Scholar
Hallerbach, W. (2003). Decomposing portfolio Value-at-Risk: A general analysis. Journal of Risk, 2(5), 118.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jarrow, R. A. (2011). Risk management models: Construction, testing usage. Journal of Derivatives, 18(4), 8998.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jorion, P. (1996). Risk2: Measuring the risk in value at risk. Financial Analysts Journal, 52, 4756.Google Scholar
Jorion, P. (2006). Value-at-Risk: The new benchmark for managing financial risk (3rd ed.). New York: McGraw-Hill.Google Scholar
Jorion, P. (2007). Risk Management for Hedge Funds with Position Information. Journal of Portfolio Management, 34(1), 127134.Google Scholar
Jorion, P. (2009). Risk management lessons from the credit crisis. European Financial Management, 15(5), 923933.Google Scholar
Kupiec, P. (1995). Techniques for verifying the accuracy of risk measurement models. Journal of Derivatives, 2, 173184.Google Scholar
Lo, A.W. (2001). Risk management for hedge funds: Introduction and overview. Financial Analysts Journal, 57(6), 1633.Google Scholar
Mincer, J. and Zarnowitz, V. (1969). The evaluation of economic forecasts and expectations. In Mincer, J. (Ed.), Economic Forecasts and Expectations. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research.Google Scholar
Nieto, M. R. and Ruiz, E. (2016). Frontiers in VaR forecasting and backtesting. International Journal of Forecasting 32, 475501.Google Scholar
O’Brien, James and Szerszeń, Paweł J. (2017). An evaluation of bank measures for market risk before, during and after the financial crisis. Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), 215234.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pajhede, T. (2017). Backtesting Value at Risk: A generalized Markov test. Journal of Forecasting, 36(5), 597613.Google Scholar
Patton, A. (2006). Modelling asymmetric exchange rate dependence. International Economic Review, 47, 527556.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pérignon, C., Deng, Z. Y. and Wang, Z. Y. (2008). Do banks overstate their Value-at-Risk? Journal of Banking and Finance, 32, 783794.Google Scholar
Pérignon, C. and Smith, D. R. (2008). A new approach to comparing VaR estimation method. The Journal of Derivatives, 16(2), 5466.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pérignon, C. and Smith, D. R. (2010a). Diversification and Value-at-Risk. Journal of Banking and Finance, 34, 5566.Google Scholar
Pérignon, C. and Smith, D. R. (2010b). The level and quality of Value-at-Risk disclosure by commercial banks. Journal of Banking and Finance, 34, 362377.Google Scholar
Pritsker, M. (1997). The hidden dangers of historical simulation. Journal of Banking and Finance, 30(2), 561582.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Riskmetrics, (1997). Riskmetrics: Technical Document (4th ed). J.P. Morgan/Reuters.Google Scholar
Tasche, D. (2000). Risk Contributions and Performance Measurement. Working paper, Munich University of Technology.Google Scholar

Save book to Kindle

To save this book to your Kindle, first ensure coreplatform@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

Available formats
×

Save book to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

Available formats
×