The kin number problem concerns the relationship between the distribution of the number of offspring of a randomly chosen individual in a population, and that of the number of relatives of various degrees of affinity of a randomly chosen individual (referred to as ‘Ego’). This problem is considered in terms of a population consisting of a large number of simultaneously developing Galton-Watson family trees. By time-reversal starting with the epoch at which Ego is sampled, it is shown that the number of offspring of Ego's parent (Ego plus siblings) and the number of offspring of Ego's grandparent (Ego's parent plus Ego's parent's siblings) have the same distribution, and the probability generating function (p.g.f.) is obtained in terms of the reproduction p.g.f. Further development of the method yields the joint p.g.f. of any number of generations prior, and subsequent, to that of Ego. Means and variances are obtained, and numerical examples are given based on data for the reproduction p.g.f. in two contrasting human populations. Various applications including demography and cancer research are discussed.

We propose a model of a passive nerve cylinder undergoing random stimulus along its length. It is shown that this model is approximated by the solution of a stochastic partial differential equation. Numerous properties of the sample paths are derived, such as their modulus of continuity, quadratic and quartic variation, and it is shown that the solution exhibits the phenomenon of flicker noise. The first-passage problem is studied, and it is shown to be connected with a first-hitting time for an infinite-dimensional diffusion.

A diffusion process X(·) in the infinite-dimensional ordered simplex is characterized in terms of the generator defined on an appropriate domain. It is shown that X(·) is the limit in distribution of several sequences of discrete stochastic models of the infinitely-many-neutral-alleles type. It is further shown that X(·) has a unique stationary distribution and is reversible and ergodic. Kingman's limit theorem for the descending order statistics of the symmetric Dirichlet distribution is obtained as a corollary.

The wind exerts a sorting effect on particles of sands and, under certain stable conditions that occur frequently but whose nature is little understood, the sorting results in log-size distributions of the hyperbolic form, first noted by R. A. Bagnold. Here, for wind-tunnel experiments a stochastic model is constructed which exhibits a sorting effect deriving from the dependence of distance travelled on the size of the single particle. Under rather specific, experimentally testable assumptions the model reproduces log-size distributions which are of the hyperbolic type and show a variation with distance along the wind tunnel that accords with experimental findings of R. A. Bagnold.

A model of the effects of random variations in environment upon reproductive fitness of sexual and asexual members of a population is analyzed, using individual selection arguments. Conditions are found under which sexuality does result in a net selective advantage, with the conditions per locus becoming markedly less severe as the number of loci considered increases.

With the general convergence theory for branching processes as basis a special problem is studied. An extra point process of events during life is assigned to each realised individual, and the behaviour of the superposition of such point processes in action is studied as the population grows. With the proper scaling and under some regularity conditions the superposition is shown to converge in distribution to a Poisson process. Another scaling gives rise to a mixed Poisson process as limit.

Established weak convergence techniques for point processes are applied, together with some recent strong convergence results for branching processes.

Given an indexed family of rate functions, we construct a family of independent random variables such that their minimum and the corresponding index form a marked point having the same rates. If the rates have common discontinuities, the random variables are conditionally independent, given a random allocation of these jumps. Between any two adjacent points of a marked point process there is a similar structure. Coherent functions in system lifetime theory provide examples.

Non-identifiability of multivariate lifetime distributions from mortality data is interpreted in this context.

The two common critical probabilities for a lattice graph L are the cluster size critical probability pH(L) and the mean cluster size critical probability pT(L). The values for the honeycomb lattice H and the triangular lattice T are proved to be pH(H) = pT(H) = 1–2 sin (π/18) and PH(T) = pT(T) = 2 sin (π/18). The proof uses the duality relationship and the star-triangle relationship between the two lattices, to find lower bounds for sponge-crossing probabilities.

This paper is concerned with the growth of multitype branching processes in a random environment (mbpre). It is shown that, under suitable regularity conditions, the process either explodes of becomes extinct. A classification theorem is given delineating the cases of explosion or extinction. Furthermore, it is shown that the process grows at an exponential rate on its set of non-extinction provided the process is stable. Criteria is given for non-certain extinction of the mbpre to occur, and an example shows that the stability condition cannot be removed. The method of proof used, in general, is direct probabilistic computation rather than the classical functional iteration techniques. Growth theorems are first proved for increasing mbpre and subsequently transferred to general mbpre using the associated mbpre and the reduced mbpre.

In the bond percolation process on the square lattice, with let S(k) be the probability that some open path joins the longer sides of a sponge with dimensions k by a log k. There exists a positive constant α = αp such that Consequently, the subset of the square lattice {(x, y):0 ≦ y ≦ f(x)} which lies between the curve y = f(x) and the x-axis has the same critical probability as the square lattice itself if and only if f(x)/log x → ∞ as x → ∞.

This paper establishes the strong consistency of the maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters of discrete- and continuous-time Markov branching processes with immigration. The asymptotic distributions of the maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters of a Galton–Watson branching process with immigration are also obtained.

Previous work on the concept of a limiting conditional age distribution of a discrete-state continuous-time Markov process with one absorbing state is generalised. The generalisation allows this process to have a finite number of absorbing states and the associated return process to have an arbitrary initial distribution on the transient states of the absorbing process. If the return process is ρ-recurrent, possesses the strong ratio limit property and satisfies some further requirements then the limiting age distribution exists. The proof of this result requires a new representation of the ρ-invariant measure of the return process.

The following examples are treated, (a) finite state space birth-death processes, (b) Markov branching processes and the linear death process, and (c) the linear birth and death process with killing.

In this paper we continue our investigation of entropy comparisons with emphasis on multivariate distributions. For multiparameter cases of the multinomial and negative multinomial distributions we consider various higher-order forms of multivariate convexity. For the multinormal, Wishart, and t-distributions we define a partial ordering on the set of covariance matrices and determine monotonicity of the entropy functional. We further indicate some entropy inequalities for different sampling schemes. Because of the complex nature of multivariate partial ordering relations several problems remain open.

A best choice problem is presented which is intermediate between the constraints of the ‘no-information’ problem (observe only the sequence of relative ranks) and the demands of the ‘full-information’ problem (observations from a known continuous distribution). In the intermediate problem prior information is available in the form of a ‘training sample’ of size m and observations are the successive ranks of the n current items relative to their predecessors in both the current and training samples.

Optimal stopping rules for this problem depend on m and n essentially only through m + n; and, as m/(m + n) → t, their success probabilities, P*(m, n), converge rapidly to explicitly derived limits p*(t) which are the optimal success probabilities in an infinite version of the problem. For fixed n, P*(m, n) increases with m from the ‘no-information’ optimal success probability to the ‘full-information’ value for sample size n. And as t increases from 0 to 1, p*(t) increases from the ‘no-information’ limit e–1 ≍ 0·37 to the ‘full-information’ limit ≍0·58. In particular p*(0·5) ≍ 0·50.

The moments and probability distribution of the lifetime of a configuration state relative to m disjoint regions in ℝd for particles under stochastic motion are expressed in terms of the derivatives at the origin of the probability after-effects for the m regions and for the union of the regions, together with the single integrated and the m randomized first-passage-time distributions, relative to the union of the m regions and to the separate complements of the m regions, respectively. The lifetime, suitably normed in terms of the mean lifetime, is shown to have a limiting standard exponential distribution. Finally, the distributions of lifetime when the motion of the particles is either Brownian or such as to generate a persistent generalized Smoluchowski process are discussed; in the first case, the distribution of lifetime reduces to a standard problem in heat conduction, and in the second case the distribution is expressed in terms of an exponential function and the m probability after-effects for the m regions.