Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-94fs2 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-12T01:26:02.545Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Strategic Voting and the Role of Polls: Evidence from an Embedded Web Survey

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  02 April 2015

Timothy S. Rich
Timothy S. Rich*
Affiliation:
Western Kentucky University
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

What motivates people to vote strategically? Although a broad literature addresses this question, few studies capture the point at which individuals shift from sincere to strategic voters. Furthermore, the influence of polling information remains debated. The analysis in this article tackles strategic voting with an original embedded experiment in a web survey. Empirical analysis finds that respondents who were told of the margin of error in preelection polls were more likely to vote strategically. This analysis also suggests the limits to strategic voting even in ideal settings.

Type
Features
Information
PS: Political Science & Politics , Volume 48 , Issue 2 , April 2015 , pp. 301 - 305
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2015 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Acevedo, Melissa, and Krueger, Joachim I.. 2004. “Two Egocentric Sources of the Decision to Vote: The Voter’s Illusion and the Belief in Personal Relevance.” Political Psychology 25 (1): 115–34.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Alvarez, R. M., Boehmke, F. J., and Nagler, J.. 2006. “Strategic Voting in British Elections.” Electoral Studies 25 (1): 1–19.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Amorim-Neto, Octavio, and Cox, Gary W.. 1997. “Electoral Institutions, Cleavage Structures, and the Number of Parties.” American Journal of Political Science 41 (1): 149–74.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Babad, Elisha. 1995. “Can Accurate Knowledge Reduce Wishful Thinking in Voters’ Predictions of Election Outcomes?” Journal of Psychology 129 (3): 285–300.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bassi, Anna. 2008. “Voting Systems and Strategic Manipulation: An Experimental Study.” Working Paper. Google Scholar
Blais, Andre, and Turgeon, Mathieu. 2004. “How Good Are Voters at Sorting out the Weakest Candidate in the Constituency?” Electoral Studies 23: 455–61.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cox, Gary W. 1997. Making Votes Count: Strategic Co-ordination in the World’s Electoral Systems. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Darmofal, David. 2010. “Reexamining the Calculus of Voting.” Political Psychology 31 (2): 149–74.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Duverger, Maurice. 1954. Political Parties: Their Organization and Activity in the Modern State. London: Methuen & Company.Google Scholar
Endersby, James W., and Shaw, Kelly B.. 2009. “Strategic Voting in Plurality Elections: A Simulation of Duverger’s Law.” PS: Political Science and Politics 42: 393–99.Google Scholar
Erisen, Cengiz, and Blais, Andre. 2014. “Strategic Voting and Personality Traits.” Working Paper.Google Scholar
Ferrara, Frederico, Herron, Erik S., and Nishikawa, Misa. 2005. Mixed Electoral Systems: Combination and its Consequences. New York: Palgrave.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Forsythe, Robert, Myerson, Roger B., Rietz, Thomas A., and Walker, Robert J.. 1993. “An Experiment on Coordination in Multi-Candidate Elections: The Importance of Polls and Election Histories.” Social Choice and Welfare 10: 223–47.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gerber, Alan S., Huber, Gregory A., Doherty, David, Dowling, Conor M., and Panagopoulos, Costas. 2013. “Big Five Personality Traits and Responses to Persuasive Appeals: Results from Voter Turnout Experiments.” Political Behavior 35: 687–728.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gimpel, James G., and Harvey, Diane H.. 1997. “Forecasts and Preferences in the 1992 General Election.” Political Behavior 19 (2): 157–75.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Grofman, Bernard, Blais, Andre, and Bowler, Shaun. 2009. Duverger’s Law of Plurality Voting: The Logic of Party Competition in Canada, India, and the United States. New York: Springer.Google Scholar
Hizen, Yoichi, Inukai, Keigo, and Kurosaka, Kengo. 2010. “Duverger’s Law in the Laboratory.” Paper presented at the GLOPE II International Symposium. December 19. Tokyo: Waseda University.Google Scholar
Kahneman, Daniel, and Tversky, Amos. 1979. “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk.” Econometrica 47 (2): 263–91.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lago, Ignacio, and Montero, José. 2009. “Coordination Between Electoral Arenas in Multilevel Countries.” European Journal of Political Research 48: 176–203.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Meffert, Michael F., and Gschwend, Thomas. 2011. “Polls, Coalition Signals and Strategic Voting: An Experimental Investigation of Perceptions and Effects.” European Journal of Political Research 50: 636–67.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shugart, Matthew S., and Carey, John. 1992. Presidents and Assemblies. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shugart, Matthew, and Wattenberg, Martin P. (eds.). 2001. Mixed-Member Electoral Systems: The Best of Both Worlds? Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Taagepera, Rein, and Shugart, Matthew. 1993. “Predicting the Number of Parties: A Quantitative Model of Duverger’s Mechanical Effect.” American Political Science Review 87 (2): 455–64.CrossRefGoogle Scholar