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The 2020 (Re)Election According to the Iowa Electronic Markets: Politics, Pandemic, Recession, and/or Protests?

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  15 October 2020

Thomas S. Gruca Open the ORCID record for Thomas S. Gruca [Opens in a new window]  and
Thomas A. Rietz Open the ORCID record for Thomas A. Rietz [Opens in a new window]
Thomas S. Gruca
Affiliation:
University of Iowa
Thomas A. Rietz
Affiliation:
University of Iowa
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Abstract

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Type
Forecasting the 2020 US Elections
Information
PS: Political Science & Politics , Volume 54 , Issue 1 , January 2021 , pp. 86 - 90
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2020. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the American Political Science Association

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References

REFERENCES

Berg, Joyce E., Geweke, John, and Rietz, Thomas A.. 2010. “Memoirs of an Indifferent Trader: Estimating Forecast Distributions from Prediction Markets.” Quantitative Economics 1:163–86.Google Scholar
Berg, Joyce E., Nelson, Forrest D., and Rietz, Thomas A.. 2008. “Prediction Market Accuracy in the Long Run.” International Journal of Forecasting 24 (2): 283–98.Google Scholar
Berg, Joyce E., Penney, Christopher E., and Rietz, Thomas A.. 2015. “Partisan Politics and Political Prospects: Evidence from the Iowa Electronic Markets.” PS: Political Science & Politics 48 (4): 573–78.Google Scholar
Berg, Joyce E., and Rietz, Thomas A.. 2006. “The Iowa Electronic Markets: Stylized Facts and Open Issues.” In Information Markets: A New Way of Making Decisions in the Public and Private Sectors, ed. Hahn, Robert W. and Tetlock, Paul C., 142–69. Washington, DC: American Enterprise Institute–Brookings Joint Center for Regulatory Studies.Google Scholar
Berg, Joyce E., and Rietz, Thomas A.. 2019. “Longshots, Overconfidence, and Efficiency on the Iowa Electronic Markets.” International Journal of Forecasting 35 (1): 271–87.Google Scholar
Erikson, Robert S., and Wlezien, Christopher. 2008. “Are Political Markets Really Superior to Polls as Election Predictors?” Public Opinion Quarterly 27 (2): 190–215.Google Scholar
Gruca, Thomas S., and Rietz, Thomas A.. 2020. “Replication Data for The 2020 (Re)Election According to the Iowa Electronic Markets: Politics, Pandemic, Recession, and/or Protests?” Version V1. Harvard Dataverse. DOI:10.7910/DVN/MHUC8C.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: Link

Gruca and Rietz Dataset

Dataset

https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/MHUC8C
Link
Supplementary material: PDF

Gruca and Rietz supplementary material

Gruca and Rietz supplementary material

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