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Of Issues and Leaders: Forecasting the 2020 US Presidential Election

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  15 October 2020

Andreas Graefe Open the ORCID record for Andreas Graefe [Opens in a new window]
Andreas Graefe*
Affiliation:
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences, Germany
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Abstract

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Information

Type
Forecasting the 2020 US Elections
Information
PS: Political Science & Politics , Volume 54 , Issue 1 , January 2021 , pp. 70 - 72
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2020. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the American Political Science Association

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References

REFERENCES

Armstrong, J. Scott, Green, Kesten C., and Graefe, Andreas. 2015. “Golden Rule of Forecasting: Be Conservative.” Journal of Business Research 68 (8): 1717–31.Google Scholar
Benoit, William L., Hansen, Glenn J., and Verser, Rebecca M.. 2003. “A Meta-Analysis of the Effects of Viewing US Presidential Debates.” Communication Monographs 70 (4): 335–50.Google Scholar
Campbell, Angus, Converse, Philip E., Miller, Warren E., and Stokes, Donald E.. 1980. The American Voter. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Clarke, Harold D., Kornberg, Allan, Scotto, Thomas J., Reifler, Jason, Sanders, David, Stewart, Marianne C., and Whiteley, Paul. 2011. “Yes We Can! Valence Politics and Electoral Choice in America, 2008.” Electoral Studies 30 (3): 450–61.Google Scholar
Graefe, Andreas. 2013. “Issue and Leader Voting in US Presidential Elections.” Electoral Studies 32 (4): 644–57.Google Scholar
Graefe, Andreas. 2015. “Improving Forecasts Using Equally Weighted Predictors.” Journal of Business Research 68 (8): 1792–99.Google Scholar
Graefe, Andreas. 2016. “Issue-Handling Beats Leadership: Issues and Leaders Model Predicts Clinton Will Defeat Trump. ” Research & Politics 3 (4): 2–5.Google Scholar
Graefe, Andreas. 2020. “Replication Data for Of Issues and Leaders: Forecasting the 2020 US Presidential Election. ” Harvard Dataverse. doi: 10.7910/DVN/T6FKLQ.Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., Norpoth, Helmut, Jacoby, William, and Weisberg, Herbert F.. 2008. The American Voter Revisited. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Petrocik, John R. 1996. “Issue Ownership in Presidential Elections, with a 1980 Case Study.” American Journal of Political Science 40 (3): 825–50.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: Link

Graefe Dataset

Dataset

https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/T6FKLQ
Link