Continuing our assessment of the conclusions drawn from the French and Italian comparison, this chapter will provide a statistical assessment of the generalisability of the findings on unemployment coverage. This analysis will be carried out in two stages, with the ultimate intention of conceptually linking (albeit not directly) the results of the survey analysis with actual policy changes. The first step will explore the factors influencing public opinion, including the effects of different national-level variables on individual preferences using multi-level modelling. The goal here, building on the previous chapter, is to analyse demand-side variation on the issue of benefit extension, both at the individual and national level. The second step will shift our attention towards actual outcomes, employing two approaches to deal with different types of changes: time-series analysis will be used to examine the national-level determinants of incremental changes in coverage levels; while duration analysis will allow us to move beyond the typical approach and directly address policy change. As we will note, focusing on the likelihood of reform itself helps us to better understand the timing of dramatic increases (or lack thereof) in coverage extension of benefit access via the introduction of national, broadly available social assistance programmes.

Before proceeding with this investigation, the chapter will begin by briefly setting out the variables to be included in the analysis; this discussion will include, where appropriate, arguments for the use of non-ideal data when better options are not available. The subsequent section of the chapter will then proceed to present the results of the statistical investigation, laying out each type of analysis in turn. These results will then be followed up with a brief summary and some conclusions, including references to the limitations of the findings and directions for future research.

To preview the findings, this chapter will suggest that the variables set out in Chapter 2 have more generalisable effects. The results of the multi-level model survey analysis point towards the broader applicability of most of the factors discussed in the French-Italian comparison. This is an important first step in the analysis, since attitudes shape the electoral incentives for parties to pursue reform. The time-series analysis of incremental changes in unemployment insurance coverage and recipiency ratios provides less clear results, but the findings of the duration analysis, which directly addresses the introduction of residualising policies, are more robust.