As a non-renewable resource, fossil fuels appear to fail the endurance criterion by definition, and on this basis alone there are people who believe we should start now a deliberate and rapid transition to alternative forms of energy. Why sustain our dependence on oil, coal and natural gas only to leave future generations the unenviable burden of a crumbling economic system built like a house of cards? When we discuss candidates for sustainable energy, fossil fuels are indeed the “unusual suspect.”

But how much oil, natural gas or coal is there? How long might these resources endure? How fixed is the relationship between each of these individual forms of fossil fuels and the secondary energy products consumed by businesses and households? What will happen as we exhaust our fossil fuel resources? Might we ever consider reliance on a depletable resource like fossil fuels to be a legitimate component of a sustainable energy system?

Fossil fuel use and economic growth

The dramatic growth in material wealth in industrializing countries over the last two centuries is associated with increasing exploitation of the high energy density of fossil fuels. This historical relationship is, however, the outcome of a complex interplay of technological innovations, shifts in economic activities, and the market dynamics of the three competing fossil fuels – which makes any projection into the future a perilous exercise. Technological innovations, changing economic conditions, and unforeseen political developments could influence the relationship in profoundly different ways.