Once Putin made clear that he would be standing down in 2008, the struggle for the presidency began. The intensification of factional wars reflected personal rivalries and the positioning of the various groups in anticipation of a change in the administration. The battle for the succession, it should be stressed, took place on two levels: the formal level of elections and public politics; and the subterranean level of group conflict within the administrative regime. Our model of Kremlin politics is of a non-public sphere of competing groups seeking to influence policy to advance their own interests within the framework of the rules of the game established by Putin to ensure his own autonomy and ultimate ability to trump the various projects of his subordinates. At the same time, the formal open election process rumbled on in parallel. There were two separate campaigns in the 2007–8 elections: one hidden from view but occasionally breaking into view; and the open formal process. The two interacted with each other, but ultimately it was the shadow system that was decisive.

Neutralising threats

While the liberals had a number of possible candidates, including Dmitry Medvedev and even Sergei Ivanov, the siloviki had no credible candidate of their own whom they could advance, and it is for this reason that they sought to persuade Putin, by fair means or foul, to stay on.