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15 - Outlook on Futures

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 January 2013

Bert J. M. de Vries
Affiliation:
Universiteit Utrecht, The Netherlands
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Summary

Introduction

When individual human beings began to experience the first flashes of consciousness, there must have been an emerging anxiety about death of the individual. Biology may have dictated the individual to put the survival of the species above that of the individual, but individual physical survival became the preoccupation that determined actions, emotions and ideas, albeit extended to the nearest members of family and tribe. Whenever threats to survival were absent, the individual and his kin could pursue other qualities of life such as improved shelter and clothing. It was here when development of the individual, and with it society, started.

Survival and reproduction of the individual and his kin has for ages been the main if not only sustainability concern for humans. Only a few individuals broadened their horizons and interests to larger areas and longer periods – the kings and priests in recorded history. But, as seen in Chapter 3, levels of quality of life above mere subsistence could rarely be sustained for more than a dozen of generations and for more than a few small elite populations. For the majority of people, individual suffering from illness, strenuous labour, oppressive overlords or natural disasters was never absent or far away. One response to these realities of life was military valour and conquest – the way of the warrior. Another one was transcending the individual self, in art, love, sacrifice, meditation and compassion – the way of artists, philosophers and priests.

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Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2012

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References

A journalistic account of predictions of the future in history and present.
Gardner, D.Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Are Next to Worthless, and You Can Do Better. New York: Dutton, 2010.Google Scholar
One of the books that presents the scenario method during its ascendency in the 1990s.
Heijden, K. van der. Scenarios – The Art of Strategic Conversation. New York: Wiley & Sons, 1996.Google Scholar
This report describes the SRES methodology and outcomes and can be downloaded from .
Nakicenovic, N., and Swart, R. (Eds.) The IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2000.Google Scholar
An evaluation and update of the Limits to Growth (1971) report on the basis of the trends between 1970 and 2000.
Meadows, D. L., Randers, J., and Meadows, D. H.. Limits to Growth – The 30-Year Update. Vermont: Chelsea Green Publishing Company, 2004.Google Scholar
A model-based investigation of two scenarios in order to find out about the resource and environment constraints in a world with population and economic growth. It can be downloaded at .
PBL. Growing within Limits. Bilthoven: Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, 2009.
Warnings of overshoot in views or actions can often be identified from the titles: Limits to Growth (Meadows et al. ), Social Limits to Growth (Hirsch 1977), Limits of Organization (Arrow 1974), Limits to competition (Group of Lisbon 1995) and Limits to Certainty (Giarini and Stahel 1993)
Globalisation vs. regionalisation coincides with the horizontal axis of big world vs. small world. Government vs. market represents the difference between a less vs. more outspoken orientation on material welfare along the vertical axis. For a discussion of these scenarios and the proposed axes, names, interpretations and shortcomings, I refer to Nakicenovic et al. (2000), de Vries (2006), Riahi et al. (2007) and de Vries and Petersen (2009)

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  • Outlook on Futures
  • Bert J. M. de Vries, Universiteit Utrecht, The Netherlands
  • Book: Sustainability Science
  • Online publication: 05 January 2013
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511794469.016
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  • Outlook on Futures
  • Bert J. M. de Vries, Universiteit Utrecht, The Netherlands
  • Book: Sustainability Science
  • Online publication: 05 January 2013
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511794469.016
Available formats
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Save book to Google Drive

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  • Outlook on Futures
  • Bert J. M. de Vries, Universiteit Utrecht, The Netherlands
  • Book: Sustainability Science
  • Online publication: 05 January 2013
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511794469.016
Available formats
×