Introduction

Globally, agriculture and food production are committed to produce, in a sustainable way, sufficient, healthful and safe food for the world population. Demographers, who had been until quite recently forecasting a steady exponential rise in world population, have now had to make a major re- adjustment and now estimate world population peaking at c. 10 billion (ten giga people) by 2050–60. World population growth, in percentage terms, had almost stopped by the 1960s and started to decrease by the 1970s. World population is still growing but adding smaller numbers each year. In many parts of the developing world, child births have decreased by up to 50% by greater awareness of the necessity of using modern methods of birth control. To successfully feed 10 billion people will require 35% more calories than presently produced by world agriculture and, indeed, much more, if any increasing proportion of the 10 billion will want to eat meat more than once a month.

To feed this world population there will need to be substantial increases in the production of the staple food commodities: cereals (40%), meat (63%) (it takes ten calories of wheat to produce one calorie of meat) and roots and tubers (40%). At least 80% of this food will need to be produced in developing countries, yet only about 6% of new virgin soil can be brought into cultivation.