This study has proposed a seven-dimensional model of military capability comprising doctrine, organizational structure, equipment, personnel, training, logistics, and organizational culture. For each dimension it has identified a set of criteria by which the capability of a military in that dimension can be assessed. Using this model and these criteria, the capabilities of the Chinese military were assessed for two periods: the years around 2000 and the years around 2010. The amount of progress between 2000 and 2010 was then used to estimate the Chinese military's capabilities in each dimension in 2020.

The overall finding of the study is that the Chinese military has made progress in all seven dimensions, but that progress in some dimensions has been significantly greater than in others. Specifically, by 2020, the quality of the Chinese military's doctrine, equipment, personnel, and training will likely be approaching, to varying degrees, those of the U.S. and other Western militaries. Critical weaknesses, on the other hand, will remain in organizational structure, logistics, and organizational culture. In particular, although the Chinese military has adopted a doctrine of maneuver and indirection, it has neither the organizational structure nor the organizational culture required to effectively implement it. Thus, although the Chinese military may have what is on paper a modern and appropriate doctrine in 2020, it will likely be unable to implement its doctrine as written, thus weakening what would otherwise be an area of relative strength. As result, during a conflict, the Chinese military could find itself having to revert to a relatively static, direct engagement-based approach that would be unable to make full use of the capabilities of its equipment and personnel.

Despite the weaknesses that are likely to persist in the Chinese military in 2020, analysis of two plausible conflict scenarios involving China and the United States suggests that defeating China in these scenarios could nonetheless be difficult and costly for the United States. This is a result of the geographic advantages China would enjoy in such a conflict as well as the capabilities of specific systems the Chinese military has chosen to acquire, including short-range and medium-range ballistic missiles, supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles, and long-range fighter aircraft.