Returning to our investigation of the generalisability of the findings of the French-Italian comparison, this chapter will explore the results of the healthcare analysis in the previous two chapters. Reflecting the approach of Chapter 4, it will do so using a combination of multi-level model, time-series, and duration analysis. Here again, the goal is to ascertain the factors (at both individual and national level) impacting popular attitudes towards welfare state programmes, couched within a more general exploration of the interplay between public opinion and national-level influences on policy decisions about how to address gaps in coverage. The latter aspect of this interplay will be analysed most notably through the use of duration analysis (designed in this case to uncover the determinants of universalisation), though we will also discuss incremental changes in healthcare coverage levels through time-series analysis.

Prior to laying out the results of this exploration, we will first delineate the dependent, explanatory, and control variables to be used in the proceeding statistical examination. The chapter will then proceed to sketch out the factors shaping public opinion, presenting the findings of multi-level model survey analysis looking at two survey questions from a 1996 Eurobarometer. Given our predictions about the impact of contextual factors on public preferences, which in turn create pressures/incentives for reform, the goal here will be to examine what factors lead individuals to feel that: (a) governments are responsible for ensuring access to healthcare; and (b) substantial reform of the healthcare system is required. In an attempt to link this analysis to actual outcomes, we will then turn to examining changes in coverage levels, once again using time-series and duration analysis, designed to analyse changes in coverage levels and policy, respectively. While the time-series analysis will examine all changes in coverage, the duration analysis will allow us to move beyond the typical approach and more precisely address our question of interest: namely, what factors push governments towards universalising their healthcare systems? We will then conclude by summarising the findings of the previous sections and laying out some general conclusions, tying the results of this analysis to those of previous chapters.